By: Jason Snider
The 2013 NFL Draft is just 48 hours away! Wow that went fast! We have had players sky rocket up and plummet down draft boards without playing a single game but I guess that's why they say the eye in the sky doesn't lie. This to me could be a very long first round as I expect many trades to occur on Thursday evening. I did not project any trades in my final mock, but that doesn't mean there will not be any. Again these selections are my thoughts of what the teams will do not what I would do if I were their general manager. I do not sway a pick one way or another just to have a certain player fall to a team that needs that player. As always feel free to comment/criticize in the comment box below or tweet your thoughts to me at @jsnider33. So sit back and enjoy as I have given an in depth breakdown on all 32 first round picks.
1
CHIEFS-
Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M 6-6 306- The Chiefs addressed the quarterback situation by acquiring Alex Smith from the 49ers for a second round pick and they also added Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith to help shore up the corner back position. The franchise tag was placed on OT Brandon Albert but there are talks of the Chiefs looking to trade Albert and get back the second round pick they gave up for Smith. Even if they keep Albert, they released right tackle Eric Winston so the biggest need this young talented roster has is at the offensive tackle position and Joeckel or Eric Fisher should they go that route, would solidify that position for years to come. In my opinion the only other possibility here is a trade down if the price is right and the move down is not too far for them to still get one of the top three tackles.
2
JAGUARS-
Geno Smith QB West Virginia 6-2 3/8 218- The Jags are notorious for questionable picks and you can question this selection all you want, but to me it makes total sense. New general manager Dave Caldwell and new head coach Gus Bradly have no allegiance to Blane Gabbert and when you look at the numbers, Jacksonville is not that deep in the hole financially with Gabbert as you may think. His contract totaled 12 million dollars and was fully guaranteed. With only two years remaining on his contract in which he will make only 1.46 million in 2013 and 2.01 million in 2014, the Jags are in a position to take Geno Smith if they see him as an upgrade at the most important position in ALL OF SPORTS! Defensive end Dion Jordan from Oregon is the other possible selection here should they not want to take the risk of another QB selection becoming a dud. Recent news is buzzing that the Jags could take the number two offensive tackle here as starting left tackle Eugene Monroe is in the final year of his rookie contract and no talks have happened regarding a new contract. Monroe was rated Pro Football Focus's 9th ranked left tackle last season.
3
RAIDERS-
Ezekiel Ahsah DE/OLB BYU 6-5 1/4 271- Should the board fall this way the pick would come down to Ansah and Jordan in my opinion. Jordan brings versatility as he can play DE/OLB but Ansah brings even more versatility. I like to refer to him as a human Swiss Army knife. Ansah can play DT/DE in a 4/3 defense and he can play DE/OLB in a 3/4 set. With the Raiders still not locked in on which defensive philosophy they will use, Ansah is the pick because he can bring so much to the table. This could be a boom or bust pick, but aren't they all? The Raiders could easily take either Star Lotulelei or Sharrif Floyd here as they have a big need on the interior of the defensive line as well.
4
EAGLES-
Dee Milliner CB Alabama 5-11 7/8 201- Many experts have a pass rusher going to the Eagles at this spot, but the Eagles are in a good shape with Connor Barwin, Trent Cole and Brandon Graham all competing for two OLB spots. They could easily take Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson here as well as both of their starting tackles is over thirty years of age and both are coming off of injuries. The Eagles signed Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher to try and replace Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but Williams is the only one that is an NFL caliber starting corner back. Milliner is the number one corner in this draft and that to me is the Eagles biggest need when you think about playing the likes of Eli Manning, RG3 and Tony Romo twice a year! I don't buy the recent injury concern about Milliner. Teams have had his injury report for months now and all of a sudden now they are concerned? To me this is a team or two trying to get the snow ball rolling so that they can be there to stop it when it comes rolling to them.
5
LIONS-
Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan6-7 1/4 306- The Lions had concerns with the tackle position to start with and then the retiring of Jeff Backus and the loss of RT Gosder Cherilus to the Colts made it priority number one! While they have Riley Reiff to man one of the tackle spots, they must address what is most likely the left tackle position as Reiff seems better suited for the right side. The Lions are in a tough spot, as they also lost their two starting defensive ends this off-season with Cliff Avril signing with Seattle and Kyle Vanden Bosh will not return. Dion Jordan could be the choice here should they deem Reiff as the long term solution at left tackle and the void at DE to be of greater need.
6
BROWNS-
Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon 6-6 1/4 248- This would be a VERY interesting situation for Cleveland. You have the number one rated outside linebacker fall to you, but you also have the highly coveted Lane Johnson in your lap as trade bate. I will put Jordan here because I feel he is their number one rated player and the only player that would make them pick at six and not try and trade out but you could not argue if they held an auction for Johnson. While you can make the case that the Browns signed OLB Paul Kruger to a big contract, the fact remains that the Browns still do not know if Jabaal Sheard can man the OLB position. Many people will complain that we still need to address the CB position, but of the teams in the top 6, the Browns have the best corner in Joe Haden. The Browns have shown a lot of interest in Florida State quarterback EJ Manuel during their preparation for the draft and if they do move out of the sixth spot and acquire an additional second round pick they could target Manuel as head coach Rob Chudzinski made comparisons between EJ and his former QB in Carolina Cam Newton. A trade down in my opinion is the most likely scenario here.
7
CARDINALS-
Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma 6-6 303- Anyone who watched the Cardinals play last year had to feel like they were watching a reenactment of the Longest Yard when Paul Crewe's offensive line refused to block for him and he got pummeled. Unless they want Carson Palmer to play Crewes role, they must address this awful o-line. Arizona gave up an NFL high 58 sacks last year! They were 28th in the league in passing and dead last in rushing. Should a team jump in front of the Cardinals to grab Johnson, Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper could be the choice as the guard position isn't any better than the tackle spots. Mingo could land here as well as the Cardinals could use another pass rusher opposite Daryl Washington.
8
BILLS-
Barkevious Mingo OLB/DE LSU 6-4 1/4 241- Mark Anderson didn't exactly earn his contract last year when he totaled only 1 sack. With the Bills going back to a 4/3 defense Mario Williams should return to form. Mingo is nasty and with Mario on the other side to take the double teams, Barkevious could flourish for the Bills. Some think Ryan Nassib could go here but I feel number eight is far too high. Look for the Bills to finagle there way into the end of the first round to snatch Nassib because Kevin Kolb is not the long term solution at QB. Tavon Austin is a sleeper pick here as Doug Marrone could look to add another weapon to the Bills arsenal. The Bills lost Andy Levitre in free agency and could take Warmack or Cooper here but Levitre was a second round pick so the Bills will address that position later in the draft.
9
JETS-
Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame 6-5 1/2 250- Eifert is by far the top tight end in this draft and what sets him apart is his ability to go up and grab the ball in traffic with no fear. With only a couple days remaining before the draft, Eifert is sliding into the top ten of some draft experts mock drafts. Tavon Austin is the most explosive play maker in this draft and could be the selection here, but that would give the Jets two smaller wide receivers. The Jets foolishly signed Santonio Holmes to a ridiculous 45 million dollar contract in 2011 that has left them strapped for cash. Trading Darrelle Revis opened up some cap space, but Holmes contract along with Mark Sanchez's(another horrible move) have the Jets in a tough place financially while they are in total rebuild mode.
10
TITANS-
Star Lotulelei DT Utah 6-2 1/2 311- The Titans 24th ranked rush defense gave up 127 yards a game on the ground and 16 rushing touchdowns. With Kamerion Wimbley and Derrick Morgan on the outside, Star could help to clog the middle and while he's not the greatest pass rushing defensive tackle, he has the strength to physically dominate guards and centers in the NFL. Sharrif Floyd could be the choice here should they look for the better penetrating tackle but Star is the higher rated player on my board as long as his heart condition checked out with the Titans doctors. Warmack or Cooper would be a luxury pick here after Tennessee added Andy Levitre via free agency to improve their offensive line. Chris Johnson would not be upset if they went in that direction.
11
CHARGERS-
Chance Warmack OG Alabama 6-2 317- Thought by many to be the best player in this draft and a lock to be a perennial pro-bowler, Warmack would help an offensive line that has become a turnstile in recent years. The Chargers would love for one of the top 3 tackles to fall to them or they may even attempt to trade up to select one, but in this situation they come away with a very solid selection. They could go best CB on their board or even Cordarrelle Patterson as their wide receiving corps left a lot to be desired last season. With a new general manager it will be interesting to see the Chargers new strategy come draft day.
12
DOLPHINS-
Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina 6-2 1/8 311- I still think the Dolphins try and use one of their two second round picks to move into the top six to grab one of the top 3 left tackles. They have been in discussions with the Chiefs about left tackle Brandon Albert, but if that trade is not complete by the time the draft starts on Thursday night, then Miami can't sit and wait and risk losing out on the top 3 tackles and potentially not get Albert either. Cooper to me is every bit as good as Chance Warmack and is ahead of him as an athlete. Cooper and center Mike Pouncy could form one of the best young center/guard combos in the league. Corner back is another position of need that the free agent happy Dolphins may address here with possibly Desmond Trufant or Xavier Rhodes, depending on their preference in CB style. This is a deep corner class and should they hold on to their two second round picks they could easily address that need their.
13
JETS-
Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia 6-2 3/8 245- Jones didn't have a great pro day as he ran a 4.9 forty yard dash but if there is one team that should know a good workout doesn't equal a great player, it's the Jets. Remember Vernon Gholston? Jarvis dominated the best conference in college football the past two years to the tune of 28 sacks and 9 forced fumbles. I gave them Eifert at number nine but could they go all in on offense and take the electrifying Tavon Austin to try and spark Mark Sanchez? The Jets now are the most interesting team to watch on Thursday night.
14
PANTHERS-
Sharrif Floyd DT Florida 6-2 5/8 297- The Panthers number one need is the defensive tackle position and I don't buy Floyd going in the top 10. His production was never that good at Florida, and DT is one of the hardest positions in the NFL for a rookie to adjust to because of the physical monsters that man the center and guard positions in the league. Tavon Austin would not surprise me here one bit. In fact, if I were picking here he would be my choice, but these are not my picks, they are what I think these teams will do. Austin would give Cam Newton an absolute play maker and would finally give the 33 year old Steve Smith some relief.
15
SAINTS-
DJ Fluker OT Alabama 6-4 5/8 339- The Saints lost Jermon Bushrod to free agency and we ALL known Drew Brees is the straw that stirs the Saints drink so protecting him must be priority number one. I found it very hard to not pencil in Tavon Austin here. I know they have weapons all over the place, but would it surprise you if they added another one? The Saints are without a second round pick here after the Bounty Gate fiasco so could they lean more need than best player available here because they don't pick again until the 75th pick? Outside linebacker is a need as they are switching to the 3/4 defense, but with all the top guys off the board, Fluker is the choice.
16
RAMS-
Tavon Austin WR West Virginia 5-8 1/2 174- The Rams front office will feel as if they are sitting on a chair of nails for the first fifteen picks of this draft as they rub their lucky rabbits feet hoping that the electric Austin falls to the sixteenth pick. Should it happen nobody will be happier than Sam Bradford in this scenario. The Rams have failed to deliver Bradford a true elite weapon in his time with the franchise and it would not shock me if they attempt to move up to grab Tavon. Kenny Vaccaro would be the choice here should Austin be off the board when the Rams are put on the clock.
17
STEELERS-
Kenny Vaccaro S Texas 6-0 214- With the best outside linebackers off the board and no nose tackle worth the 17th pick, the Steelers address the future with Vaccaro. Ryan Clark(33) and Troy Polamalu(32) are both on the decline of their careers and Vacarro won't just sit on the sideline and wait to play. Vaccaro can play the slot and he can play it well as he waits for one of the aforementioned safeties to hit the road. They could go Cordarrelle Patterson to fill the void left by Mike Wallace's departure or they could fill the nose tackle position with a mountain of a man like Johnathan Jenkins if they have him rated the highest player at their draft slot. We know the Steelers will not reach as much as we would like them to!
18
COWBOYS-
Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri 6-2 1/2 294- Offensive guard and safety are the biggest needs for the Cowboys but in this scenario Vaccaro and the top two guards are off the board here so they go with the lighting quick penetrating defensive tackle from Missouri. With DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer on the outside, Richardson would give Dallas three top tear pass rushers on a four man defensive line. Protecting Romo is a huge need and the Cowboys could look at the guard position with the 47th pick in the second round.
19
GIANTS-
Alec Ogletree LB Georgia 6-2 1/2 242- The Giants have holes at weak side linebacker and corner back on the defensive side of the ball that must be addressed. Ogletree is the higher rated player here as he is my number one 4-3 linebacker. He is one of the best athletes in this draft and the Giants 25th ranked run defense and their 28th ranked pass defense would both benefit from the addition of Ogletree. Alec should also benefit from the veteran locker room of the Giants as he has had some maturity issues off the field. The lack of sacks (only 33) had an impact on the pass defense last season so that ranking is a bit skewed in my opinion. They could go best CB available here as well as that is another big concern for the Giants.
20
BEARS-
Manti Te'o LB Notre Dame 6-1 1/4 241- Manti's off-season has been very interesting to say the least. He will look to put the past behind him and the Bears will hope that he can as they will ask him to replace future Hall of Fame linebacker Brian Urlacher. Chicago addressed the left tackle position during free agency by signing Jermon Bushrod away from the Saints. Bjoern Werner could be a sneaky selection here as the Bears lack any kind of pass rush other than Julius Peppers.
21
BENGALS-
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee 6-1 7/8 216- Patterson has slid down draft boards a bit and while wide receiver isn't the most pressing need the Bengals can't pass on the opportunity of adding the dangerous Patterson to go along with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham. Cordarrelle excels at running with the ball after the catch and that should be the focus as he learns how to run routes at the NFL level. Having Green across from him will put him in many favorable one on one situations. Alec Ogletree would be the selection here should he be available as the Bengals have a solid but extremely slow linebacking corps.
22
RAMS-
John Cyprien S Florida International 6-0 1/4 217- Many may put Eddie Lacy here but he is not even my top running back in this draft and he did nothing to improve his stock with his disappointing pro day. Cyprien is the best true coverage safety in this draft and the Rams have two corners that like to take chances in Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins so they need that true center fielder. St. Louis could still draft Lacy or my number one running back Johnathan Franklin in the second round with the forty sixth pick. This is a young and talented Rams roster that with the additions of Tavon Austin and Cyprien could make some noise as a possible wild card team in 2014.
23
VIKINGS-
Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State 6-1 1/1 210- You can make a great case for the corner back position being the biggest need for the Vikings and that is why I have them taking him at 23. They could not wait till the twenty fifth pick as the Colts have a need at CB as well. I look for the Vikes to go with the best WR available at number twenty five and then take the best defensive tackle on the board with the 52nd pick in the second round. Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams(bring back the Williams twins) could be the choice in the second round.
24
COLTS-
Desmond Trufant CB Washington 5-11 5/8 190- The Colts did a great job of addressing needs via free agency without spending too much money. This is almost a close your eyes and throw the dart kind of pick for me. They could go wide receiver as Reggie Wayne isn't getting any younger, best available corner or possibly look to add depth/competition along the offensive and defensive lines.
25
VIKINGS-
Bjoern Werner DE Florida State 6-3 1/4 266- While I said they could go wide receiver here, Werner would give Jared Allen (74 sacks in 5 seasons with Min) a little help on the other side and Allen would be a great mentor to Werner on and off the field. In a division with Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford you can never have too many pass rushers. Justin Hunter or Keenan Allen could be the choice here but the signing of Greg Jennings has eased that need a bit. They could look to fill the wide receiver need with the 52nd pick in round two.
26
PACKERS-
Eddie Lacy RB Alabama 5-11 231- The Packers were 20th in the league last year in rushing with only 106 yards a game and 9 rushing touchdowns. You can talk about the offensive line needing to protect Aaron Rodgers but a little threat of a run game would go along way. Again the Packers could look to address that offensive line or take their top rated safety to try and shore up the secondary. Could the Vikings going defense at 23 and 25 force the Packers to go offensive line?
27
TEXANS-
Justin Hunter WR Tennessee 6-4 196- The Texans say it every year. We are going to get Andre Johnson some help on the other side. Then they wait till the middle rounds to address the issue and it remains a big need. With both Hunter and Keenan Allen on the board Houston would almost be forced to take one. Andre Johnson is 31 years old and if you keep waiting your going to be looking to replace Johnson himself and not trying to get the compliment to him. The time is now for the Texans before their window of opportunity closes.
28
BRONCOS-
Cornellius Tank Carradine DE Florida State 6-4 1/4 276- The Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil is an odd way and have yet to replace him. They did however address the CB situation by signing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and also added Wes Welker and offensive guard Louis Vasquez. The Broncos roster is loaded so again this is a team that could go a number of ways with this pick. Carradine had an impressive pro day that should improve teams outlook on him coming off of ACL surgery.
29
PATRIOTS-
Keenan Allen WR California 6-2 206- The Patriots wide receiving corps is just a bunch of guys at this point after losing Wes Welker via free agency to Denver. If they plan to rely on the often injured Danny Amendola or the average Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones to be play makers for Tom Brady they may be extremely disappointed this season. New England resigned Sebastian Vollmer to protect Brady and that was a big move for them as that would have been a huge necessity. The Pats could go corner back here as well but if there is one position Bill Belichick has failed at hitting in the draft it is that one.
30
FALCONS-
DJ Hayden CB Houston 5-11 1/8 191- The Falcons have a huge need at the corner position after losing Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes and in case you didn't know Asante Samuel is thirty two years old. Hayden's story is remarkable. He severed his inferior vena cava after taking a vicious hit in practice and his life was on the line but thanks to the quick reaction of the Houston medical staff he was able to survive and now is Mike Mayock's number one ranked corner ahead of Alabama's Dee Milliner. Zach Ertz could be the long term solution at the tight end spot and would also get a year to learn from the best tight end to ever play the game. ( In my opinion of course)
31
49ERS-
Johnathan Jenkins DT/NT Georgia 6-3 5/8 346- Find me a weakness on this team! Coming off of a Super Bowl loss the 49ers had questions at corner(signed Nnamdi Asomugha), defensive end (signed Glenn Dorsey) and wide receiver (traded for Anquan Boldin). You can argue that safety may be a bigger need than nose tackle after losing Dashon Goldson to Tampa Bay but this team knows that it all starts in the trenches. You are going to tell me that a team of this caliber that added what they did in free agency is going to add a 346 pound monster in the middle and then be back on the clock with the second pick in the second round? The rich get richer!
32
RAVENS-
Menelik Watson OT Florida State 6-5 1/8 310- We have all seen the movie "The Blind Side" but the truth is Michael Oher really isn't that good on the left side. He is better suited on the right side and the Ravens and every team that plays the Ravens knows it too. Watson is raw but has great athleticism for his size. Oher could stay on the left side for the '14 season while Watson gets his feet wet on the right side and then they can make the change moving forward. Michael Huff was added during free agency and that makes the safety position less of a immediate need. Rolando McClain was added at the linebacker spot but it didn't take long for him to return to his home away from home otherwise known as the Decatur Alabama police station. Ultimately this will lead to his quick departure out of Baltimore so the Ravens could look to address linebacker with the 62nd pick in round two.
